USC Dornsife | State and County-Level Estimates of Revenue Gains from Changes to California’s System of Assessing Commercial Real Estate

By Jennifer Ito, Justin Scoggins, Pamela Stephens, and Manuel Pastor

Since we published Getting Real About Reform, the commercial and industrial real estate market has continued to recover from the downturn triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. To reflect more recent real estate market trends, we have updated our analysis with assessor roll data current through December 2016. With data on more recent sales, we have updated our analysis of disparities between market and assessed values for all commercial and industrial properties (excluding agriculture and all residential uses including multi-family) statewide and for every county.

We now estimate that an additional 11.4 billion dollars, or between 10.8 and 12.0 billion dollars, in property tax revenues would be generated statewide in 2019-20 if all commercial and industrial property were assessed at market value.